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MARCH 15,  2016

NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE MAJOR PRIMARIES

It was son of Super Tuesday, and lived up to its billing.  Tonight was the most important night of the race for the presidency because it brought a new clarity.

For Hillary Clinton it was a great night.  She swept the field, winning Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, and beating back a Bernie barrage to win narrowly in Illinois.  Missouri is still deadlocked.  But it's hard to figure where Bernie goes from here.  I'm kind of relieved.  I'm no fan of Hillary, to be clear, but Bernie Sanders is one of the most dangerous people in public life.   He, much more than Obama, is the dream of the sixties radicals.  I am speculating that Hillary is on her way to the nomination, with one big obstacle – the FBI probe into her practices as secretary of state.  That could be fatal, and I'm sure the heat is already on to allow the queen to make some kind of deal with the Justice Department.  A fine, maybe, with no acknowledgment of guilt.   

For Donald Trump it was also a great night, and his victory speech almost sounded presidential.  We always thought of the great Ronald Reagan as the teflon candidate.  Trump is super teflon, several coats thick.  No matter what he says or does, his victories still mount.  Yes, his negatives are staggering (as are Hillary's), but it's the positives that are moving him to the nomination.  He won all but two states tonight.  Critically, John Kasich held on to his home state of Ohio.  And Trump and Ted Cruz are locked in a virtual tie in Missouri. We may not know Missouri's results for days.

Marco Rubio bowed out, giving a gracious, elegant concession speech suspending his campaign.  This step was inevitable after the loss of his home state.   He's, in my view, a gifted man with a long political career ahead of him, if he wants it.  Many saw him as the Republican Party's best chance for victory this year, but he ran into the unexpected Trump machine and never made much headway in the primaries.  Jack Kennedy couldn't even make it onto the Democratic ticket as vice presidential candidate in 1956, but came back to win the presidential nomination four years later.

So now, on the Republican side, we have effectively a two-man race, with a debate coming up Monday night.  True, Kasich stays in as the third man, but he's essentially a soldier in the stop-Trump army.  It's Trump against Cruz.  Neither man inspires love from the GOP establishment, or from anyone else for that matter.   The numbers tell us that Trump is heavily favored, but it's a very strange year.  If he doesn't come into the convention in July with enough votes to win on the first ballot, all chaos could break out, with everyone threatening a third party.

Such fun.  And Hillary could be indicted.

We need Jimmy Stewart.

March 15, 2016       Permalink

A ONE-WAY STREET – AT 11:09 A.M. ET:   The administration is making new concessions to Cuba.  But many are increasingly asking what we're getting in return.  That would be a short answer.  From the Washington Examiner: 

The administration on Tuesday put Americans closer to visiting Cuba and purchasing Cuban-made goods than at any time since Washington imposed severe sanctions on the communist nation.

The Treasury and Commerce departments said U.S. citizens would be allowed to independently make educational trips to Cuba. Previously, Americans could visit only through a government-approved organization and had to be accompanied by a group representative. They made the announcement ahead of President Obama's historic trip to the island next week.

"This change is intended to make authorized educational travel to Cuba more accessible and less expensive for U.S. citizens, and will increase opportunities for direct engagement between Cubans and Americans," the joint news release said.

COMMENT:  And what precisely does this country, or Cuba's oppressed people, get out of this?  Cuba needs the deal far more than we do, and yet we made all the concessions.  Of course, Obama's crowd has always had a crush on Fidel.  Never mind the political prisons.  In Cuba you get free cough drops.  Take that, Mayo Clinic!

If Sanders ever gets elected, he will be far worse.  He not only was a fan of the Castros, he was a cheerleader for the Sandinistas.  And he honeymooned in the Soviet Union.  ("The Kremlin is for lovers.") 

In the meantime, the Castro boys will have to settle for Obama.  Cuba's thousands of political prisoners have not sent their thanks.

March 15, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER SUPER TUESDAY – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:   Americans are already voting.  Today's vote will have a dramatic impact on both political parties.  On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is once again showing real strength against Hillary Clinton.  As we reported last night, the gap between them in national polls has narrowed. 

Recently, Sanders upset Clinton in Michigan.  He has a shot at doing the same thing today in Illinois and Ohio.  While Hillary leads handily in Florida, in Ohio she's up by only about six points.  In Illinois, she may lead by only three.  Hillary leads strongly in North Carolina, but Bernie is leading in the latest Missouri polls, if only by a point or so.  The press continues to suppress any real information about Bernie's political background, which is far left, even more left than Obama.  And young people, indoctrinated in the fever swamps that have become our colleges, flock to him.  He come to save us, just like Obama.  At the same time, Hillary is decidedly unpopular, has an FBI probe hanging over her, and avoids the truth whenever possible.

On the GOP side, it may be a make-or-break day for the anti-Trump movement building within the party.  Trump will take the biggest prize, Florida, apparently by a wide margin.  Some polls have him up by 25 points.  That will knock Florida Senator Marco Rubio out of the race.  In Ohio, though, the state's Governor, John Kasich, is holding on to a slim lead of about five points.  If he can deny Trump the state of Ohio, the anti-Trump groups might still have a chance.  Trump is leading in North Carolina, and by about six in Illinois, but we have no late polling from Missouri.   

Some of the state polls have been fluid in both parties.  The disturbances at Trump rallies over the weekend may influence late deciders, but in what direction? 

It's been a campaign of surprises.  There are few firm predictions being made.

And what of Ted Cruz?  He is not leading in any of the polling done in today's major primary states.  However, if Rubio and Kasich are both knocked out in their home states, he could be the last man standing to take on Donald Trump, and perhaps force an open Republican convention in July.

March 15, 2016       Permalink   

AS WE VOTE – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  America votes in primary elections today, and we have taken that right to vote for granted.  While we vote in peace and freedom, others around the world are facing genocide.  The president of the United States (for another ten months) shows indifference.  From Kirsten Powers at USA Today: 

Hillary Clinton has said it. Marco Rubio, too. The European Parliament, the U.S. Catholic bishops and Pope Francis have also uttered the important word to describe Islamic State’s systematic elimination of Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities in the Middle East.

It’s called genocide.

The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, the Iraqi and Kurdish governments, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have called what is happening by it’s correct name.

But not so the Obama Administration. The president and his representatives refuse to embrace the word and the attendant responsibilities that come with recognizing the campaign of terror in the Middle East.

So it’s left to the House of Representatives to speak out on behalf of the United States. Today, Congress will join the global chorus of condemnation and take up a resolution cosponsored by 203 members of Congress — including 62 Democrats — to say what the president will not. The resolution declares that the atrocities against Middle Eastern religious and ethnic minorities constitute “war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.” It declares that it is the sense of Congress that all governments, including the Unites States, should recognize this reality. The resolution is expected to pass with overwhelming bipartisan support. A bipartisan companion bill in the Senate has ten cosponsors.

COMMENT:  The basic truth is that Obama is a cold, petty man, who really doesn't care about things like genocide.  He cares about his legacy.  His legacy includes getting the United States– which he regards as a very defective nation – out of the Middle East.  It also includes polishing the image of Islam.  Not the best man to fight genocide.

March 15,  2016     Permalink

MARCH 14,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

BERNIE? – There are some signs that Bernie Sanders is closing, somewhat the gap with Hillary Clinton.  From The Hill:   The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is tightening, with Bernie Sanders closing in on Hillary Clinton in two important contests.  Sanders is leading Clinton in Missouri and has cut into the Democratic front-runner’s lead in Ohio and Illinois, according to a new survey the left-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP).  All three states now look like toss-ups, with the PPP poll showing Sanders trailing Clinton by just 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, in Ohio.  The change is particularly notable because several polls in Ohio at the beginning of the month showed Clinton with a 20- to 30-point lead over the Vermont senator.  The race has drawn much closer since Sanders's surprise win in Michigan; he also trailed by double-digits in that state weeks before its primary.  In Illinois, Clinton gets 48 percent in the PPP survey compared to 45 percent for Sanders.  I have the feeling that the vote is turning more away from Clinton than toward Sanders.  Hillary isn't loved.  She has more baggage than American Airlines, and she doesn't lose hers.  I also think that gross irresponsibility by the press is fueling at least part of Sanders's rise.  As with Obama, the media men refuse to tell us what Sanders actually believes, as reflected in his political background.  He's a hard leftist, and cannot be trusted with the defense of this country.

A PRICE IS PAID –  College protests are taking their toll on the very institutions being protested.  The working-class kids will be hurt the most.  From Fox:   Safe spaces may become empty spaces at the University of Missouri, where officials acknowledged that an expected sharp decline in enrollment next fall is due at least in part to protests that rocked the campus last fall.  The school is braced for a 25 percent drop in new students this coming fall, forcing the institution to enact painful budget cuts, as well as hiring and salary freezes.  “We do know that the events of last fall have had an effect on our application numbers; however, it’s difficult to provide a specific number as we do not have any hard data," University of Missouri spokesman Christian Basi said in a statement to Foxnews.com.   Why go to an unstable institution that knuckled under to the protesters when you can go somewhere else?  The market works. 

SHE TOLD THE TRUTH!  From the New York Post:   Here’s a novelty: Hillary Clinton told the truth. Oops!  “We’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business,” Clinton said Sunday night while boasting about her clean-energy program — and with a big smile on her face.  In fact, this is standard Democratic policy: President Obama’s been throwing coal miners out of work for seven years now, aiming to deliver on his 2008 pledge to “bankrupt” the coal industry.  But most Dems have the sense to pretend they’re just protecting the environment — and bashing business, ’natch.  Hillary said today that no Americans died in Benghazi.  Maybe it depends on what your definition of "died" is.

March 14,  2016     Permalink

MORE HAPPY TALK – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:   North Korea is increasingly seen as a real and growing threat, not a theoretical problem.   From the great Bill Gertz at the Washington Free Beacon:

Escalating threats from North Korea’s communist regime are indicators of a future military attack or another nuclear test in the coming days, according to a recent U.S. intelligence assessment.

Intelligence agencies issued the assessment last week warning that threatening rhetoric from Pyongyang in response to large-scale U.S.-South Korean military exercises and new U.N. sanctions had reached the highest level in years.

The unclassified assessment circulated within government states that the intense language suggests North Korea is preparing for a surprise military strike or a demonstration of strategic capability, such as a new long-range missile test or underground nuclear blast, according to U.S. officials familiar with the report.

On Sunday, North Korean state news media warned its missiles could destroy New York City in a thermonuclear attack.

“Our hydrogen bomb is much bigger than the one developed by the Soviet Union,” the outlet DPRK Today stated.

“If this H-bomb were to be mounted on an inter-continental ballistic missile and fall on Manhattan in New York City, all the people there would be killed immediately and the city would burn down to ashes,” the report said.

COMMENT:  Real nice talk.  Of course, the liberals have assured us that we have "agreements" with North Korea.  Yeah, the kind of agreements that Chamberlain had with Hitler. 

Maybe we should cut our defenses further, as a sign of our good will.

March 14, 2016       Permalink

IRAN – A HILLARY-OBAMA BREACH? – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  New missile tests by Iran are putting some distance between Hillary Clinton and the aging Obama administration.  But don't get your hopes up.  From The Hill:

Iran's ballistic missile tests are reigniting the debate over sanctions and putting new pressure on the Obama administration.

Republicans, and many Democrats, including Hillary Clinton, are calling for a strong response, after Iran test-fired ballistic missiles twice last week, in defiance of international law. They were the first tests since an international nuclear deal with Iran took effect earlier this year.

Lawmakers are particularly incensed over the second day of testing, when Iran reportedly fired missiles with the words "Israel must be wiped off the face of the earth" written in Hebrew -- an explicit threat to a close U.S. ally.

Republicans say the test is a blatant violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which calls upon Iran not to conduct any launches of ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon. Iran has denied that the tests did so.

GOP lawmakers seized upon the tests as evidence Iran could not be trusted to uphold the nuclear deal, which lifted heavy sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits to its nuclear program, and blasted the Obama administration as naive.

"Conducting ballistic missile tests is akin to throwing dirt in the face of the entire free world. And it reveals Iran has little intention of abiding by the terms of the nuclear deal it agreed to just months ago," said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.).

Republicans say the U.S. sanctions imposed by the administration earlier this year in response to similar tests in October and November are too weak, and vowed to press ahead with new sanctions.

"Clearly the current ballistic missile sanctions regime is ineffective," Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said earlier this week.

He told reporters the Senate is working to extend the Iran Sanctions Act, which expires at the end of the year and hinted at other sanctions legislation to cover Iran's conventional weapons and ballistic missile development.

"There is already a strong bipartisan movement in the Senate to act," he said.

COMMENT:  Yeah, right, until Field Marshal Obama cracks the whip, as he did with the absurd Iran nuclear deal.  Watch the Democrats fall right in line. 

Iran is laughing at us.  I'm sure the mullahs fell off their chairs reading the recent interview with the field marshal in Atlantic, wherein Obama seemed to blame America's allies for most of his troubles.  Damn pro-American stooges, always trying to survive!  Have they not understood the wisdom of Barack?

March 14, 2016       Permalink

HISPANICS FOR TRUMP – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  Is it possible that Donald Trump is getting some support in Florida?  Well, maybe.  From the Tampa Bay Times: 

HIALEAH — Cuban-Americans here have the rare opportunity to vote for two of their own for the presidency of the United States. Yet, some are making a different choice: They're backing Donald Trump.

The controversial frontrunner has insisted he'll draw Hispanic voters despite launching his campaign last June with inflammatory remarks about Mexicans and rapists. And as he competes in Florida, the biggest state yet to test his boast, there is anecdotal evidence of support among Miami-Dade's staunchly Republican Cuban-American voters even as most back Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, whom many Cuban-American voters helped elect to the U.S. Senate in 2010.

For Trump backers, ethnicity plays no factor.

"I don't think Cuban, I think American," said former Hialeah Mayor Julio Martinez, who, for two weeks, has held a Trump campaign sign outside an early voting site just blocks from where Rubio last week implored Hispanics to vote for him in Tuesday's presidential primary.

Perched in a lawn chair outside the John F. Kennedy Library, holding a "The Silent Majority Stands with Trump" sign, Martinez said he was backing Trump because there was "nobody better suited" to fixing the economy.

"The worst problem the United States has today is the economy," he said.

Trump's pledge to force Mexico to pay for construction of a wall at the U.S. border and his call to deport the nation's estimated 11 million immigrants who are here illegally have infuriated Hispanic advocacy groups and led to heated protests at his rallies. But for backers, they play no role. Even Trump's support for closer ties with Cuba's government makes no waves.

COMMENT:  It's very hard to know how far this goes.  Most polls show Trump extremely unpopular among Hispanics.  There have been stories that Trump is making inroads among blacks, but polls don't really bear that out.

I'm noticing, by the way, some support for Trump on the far right, not the conservative right, but the far right.  The people who think Iran is just fine.  I am not a Trump supporter, and I find the weirdness of the campaign thus far a danger, not an asset.  Clarity and clear definitions of policy are what I look for, and we're not getting them.  I still maintain that a good chunk of the Trump vote, possibly a majority, is an anger vote, a protest vote, with little coherence.

March 14,   2016     Permalink